The Truth About Nader

There are a lot of people out there who dislike both Trump and Hillary, yet they keep hearing about how we ended up with Bush because of Nader.

So I'm here to tell you the truth about how this works.

If you're in a state like California or Vermont, the Democrats outnumber the Republicans by more than 2 to 1. That means that even if the Democratic votes were split in half, the Democrats would still win.

That means that there is absolutely no chance that Trump could win Vermont or California even if Bernie and Hillary split the votes 50/50.

So fear not!

So, if you live in these two, or many of the other states where Trump has absolutely no chance of winning, Vote for who you want to vote for. There's no reason you have to vote for Hillary in these two states and many others because you fear Trump.

Vermont

Take a look at Vermont:
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/vermont

The Republicans got a total of:
19,968 + 18,543 + 11,778 + 5,929 + 2,544 + 1,101 + 1,150 = 61,013 votes

While the Democrats got a total of:
115,863 + 18,335 + 279 + 94 = 134571 votes

So, the Democrats outnumber the Republicans by more than a factor of two. There is no way that Trump will win Vermont because people voted for Bernie. As a matter of fact, by looking at the numbers, I bet that a lot of those Republicans won't be voting for Trump, and will probably vote for Bernie instead. The Republicans in Vermont just don't seem to like Trump very much. AND, it looks like the Democrats in Vermont don't like Hillary.

Bernie is is very likely going to win Vermont.

California

Now take a look at California:
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/california

The Republicans have: 1,635,349 + 248,504 + 208,515 + 80,381 + 15,452 = 2,188,201 votes

While the Democrats got a total of:
2,713,259 + 2,326,030 + 11,827 + 10,746 + 8,360 + 7,656 + 7,115 = 5084993 votes

Again, the Democrats have over twice the number of votes as the Republicans. So even if Bernie and Hillary split the vote 50/50, Trump still can't win.

Oregon

How about Oregon:
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/oregon

The Republicans have: 240,804 + 61,590 + 59,096 = 361,490 votes

While the Democrats got a total of:
320,746 + 251,739 = 572,485 votes
572485 / 2 = 286242.5

While the Democrats clearly outnumber the Republicans, they don't outnumber them by a factor of 2 as they do in California and Vermont. Splitting the vote between Hillary and Bernie could actually cause Trump to win Oregon. What's even worse is that Hillary and Bernie were almost tied in the primary. Oregon is clearly a very dangerous state for a Bernie write-in campaign unless Hillary is way ahead of Trump in all the other states. If this is the case, we actually need to take more states away from Hillary and we could afford to lose a few extra states to Trump. We need to be extremely cautious about Oregon.

Rhode Island

How about Oregon:
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/rhode-island

The Republicans have: 39,059 + 14,929 + 6,393 + 381 + 417 = 61,179N votes

While the Democrats got a total of:
66,720 + 52,493 + 236 + 145 + 1,659 = 121,253 votes
121,253 / 2 = 60626.5

With Rhode Island, it's not quite a factor of two, but it's very close. This state might be worth risking even though it's close, and even though it was a close race between Hillary and Bernie. But we should not focus any energy on any campaigns in this state unless we've finished all the other more guaranteed states first.

So, look at the numbers in your state and figure out if YOU have to worry about Trump winning in your state or not. And if you want to vote for Bernie, and you're in a state where you are allowed to write him in, then do it. Don't vote out of fear.

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